Barring a miracle, it looks like Watson will defeat the two human “Jeopardy!” champions tomorrow night and claim the crown of world’s biggest nerd. Going into the contest, I had been telling myself that I was for the computer, because a win for Watson was a win for humanity. But last night, when Watson started kicking serious ass, I began to feel queasy. Not for any Skynet-became-self-aware type of reason, but because the sight of Brad Rutter and Ken Jennings being sacrificed to a machine for the greater glory of I.B.M. was a sorry spectacle. My twelve-year-old son couldn’t bear to watch, and went downstairs, no doubt to use the computer.
All that remains is to figure out what Watson’s victory means. That’s one question Watson can’t answer, so it falls to us, the vanquished, to grapple with it. Is Watson a great breakthrough in science—a Sputnik moment—or an elaborate parlor trick? When I asked Steven Pinker this question, he responded:
Pinker went on:
I.B.M. spent, by some reports, more than a billion dollars to build Watson. The project has been a brilliant branding campaign, but are there business applications that would allow I.B.M. to recoup its investment? Watson is not going to be the next Google. Watson can understand nuances of language and syntax, unlike Google. But Google, though commercial and cluttered, is far more in tune with what humans want (including sex) than Watson is.
In some ways, Watson is a throwback to I.B.M.’s beginnings in computing: a large, stand-alone mainframe that can be programmed for specific tasks. There is talk of a “Watson M.D.”: a remote terminal that will be installed in doctors’ offices and can help to diagnose patients’ illnesses and prevent future ones. There’s also discussion of a Watson-enabled device for your car that could identify what’s causing that rattle more accurately than an unfamiliar mechanic or the hosts of “Car Talk.” Darren Hayes, a professor of computer science at Pace University who specializes in computer forensics, told me that he foresees applications for Watson in intelligence-gathering, specifically in improving the quality of analysis at the seventy-five “fusion centers” that the Department of Homeland Security set up around the country after 9/11.
I do hope Watson finds something useful to do, and does not become, like so many other instant TV celebrities, future fodder for a “Where are they now?” segment. Otherwise, I.B.M. just bought three very expensive half-hour infomercials.