“Obama Coalition” Carries Him to Big Victory

In the end, it wasn’t even very close. From the moment the exit polls came in, it looked like President Obama was heading for a big victory, and, according to the major networks, that proved to be the case. All evening, Democratic wins in the battleground states steadily stacked up: Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado. At 11:15, NBC called Ohio for the President.

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As I’m writing this, Florida and Virginia remain too close to call, but it looks like Obama will win them both. That would give him three hundred and thirty two votes in the electoral college, and leave Mitt Romney with two hundred and six. That’s a bit bigger margin than I and most of the pundits and forecasters predicted. Once the votes in California and the rest of the West are counted, Obama will most likely win the popular vote, too.

I’ll be back in a while with longer post. For now, it looks like the President’s reëlection strategy worked beautifully. According to the exit polls, all the elements of the “Obama coalition” turned out for him in big numbers: women, Hispanics, African-Americans, young voters, gays and lesbians, and highly educated professionals. And the targeted messages in Ohio (auto bailout) and Florida (Medicare) paid off. Obama lost the white vote by more than fifteen per cent, according to CNN’s exit poll, but it didn’t matter.

For once, Bill O’Reilly was right: “Obama wins because it’s not a traditional America anymore.” Plus, Obama ran a very effective campaign, the Mittster didn’t, and the Republicans are too extreme to appeal to moderates. That about explains it.