If you think that Washington is messed up, and the political system is failing to address many of America’s biggest challenges, stick around. Things look to be getting even worse. That’s the message of the primaries held on mini-Super Tuesday, and the latest opinion polls, which show the Republicans leading the Democrats in many of the states key to the November midterms.
Now that the Republicans have decided not to hand elections to the Democrats by nominating right-wing looney tunes in races for winnable seats, they stand prepared to exploit the three big factors that are running in their favor: an unusually friendly electoral map, an unpopular President, and a widespread feeling that the country is on the wrong track. As I pointed out a couple of weeks ago in a bluffer’s guide to the midterms, the situation has turned around dramatically since last fall, when, for a brief moment in the wake of the government shutdown, Democrats were dreaming about recapturing the House of Representatives. Today, that seems virtually impossible. Unless something changes over the summer, the G.O.P. is likely to gain the six seats it needs to capture the Senate, which could well usher in a two-year standoff with the White House that would make the current gridlock look like a model of benign administration.
It’s not just that nothing would get done about things like climate change, gun control, and long-term budget reform. With the Republicans exercising a legislative veto through their majority in the House of Representatives, we have already been stuck on these issues, and many others, for three-and-a-half years. If the G.O.P. takes over the Senate, it will also gain the power to block Presidential appointees much more easily than it can do as the minority party—and a good deal of day-to-governance will probably grind to a halt. Judgeships and ambassadorships will remain vacant for want of candidates acceptable to both parties. Cabinet members and other nominees to the executive branch will have an even harder time getting appointed than they do now—and the situation is already so dire that it’s an international embarrassment to the United States.
Consider the Federal Reserve, which is down to four Washington-based governors, rather than its usual seven. On Wednesday, the Senate confirmed Stanley Fischer, a well-known economist and public official, to replace Jeremy Stein, who is returning to Harvard. But that merely prevented the number of governors from being cut to three, which would have produced a situation in which several key subcommittees at the central bank would have consisted of a single member. Or take the International Monetary Fund, another institution through which the United States exercises great influence around the world. Republicans have been blocking a series of reforms to the I.M.F. that would give a greater say to fast-growing countries like China and Brazil. The situation has gotten so bad that the government of Britain, which rarely says boo to its closest ally, has called on Congress to get its finger out and ratify the changes.
This is all occurring with the Republicans controlling one chamber of Congress. Can you imagine what would happen if, in addition, Mitch McConnell was running the Senate? (For this purpose, I’m assuming that he defeats his Democratic challenger in Kentucky, Alison Lundergan Grimes, which is no sure thing, polls suggest.) It is possible, I suppose, that McConnell, having just endured six months of pointed attacks from the Democrats and their Super PACs, will set aside partisan concerns and emerge as a statesman willing to compromise with President Obama and get things done. But the Republicans can’t even agree amongst themselves on various areas where an agreement is conceivable, such as immigration and tax reform. Rather than bucking the G.O.P. ultras who have no interest in doing any deals with Obama, McConnell would most likely continue to bang on about repealing Obamacare, refuse to give ground on anything, and hope that his party sweeps it all in 2016. Meanwhile, Republicans in the House would still be busy trying to whip up some public fury about Benghazi, the I.R.S., the Veterans Administration, and whatever else they could come up with.
At this stage, it’s hard to think what could dissuade the Republicans in Congress from adopting such scorched-earth tactics. You might think that they would be concerned with their institution’s pathetic approval rating, which currently stands at 13.7 per cent, according to the Real Clear Politics poll of polls. But this doesn’t seem to bother them much. Doubtless, that’s partly because so many of their districts are gerrymandered and they don’t face much prospect of being voted out. But it’s also because the public’s disgust with Washington drags down the President and his party, too.
Recent history suggests that about the only things that can overcome narrow partisan concern, and persuade the two parties to coöperate, are wars and financial crises. Assuming that we don’t happen into either of those calamities over next two and half years, the prospect is for gridlock on top of gridlock.
Photograph by Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Getty.
